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Race Pacing Explained: Smart Strategies to Avoid Blowing Up on Race Day

Race Pacing Explained: Smart Strategies to Avoid Blowing Up on Race Day

race pacingPacing is one of the most important skills you can develop as a runner, but it can be very difficult to get right. You can arrive at the start line feeling confident that you have trained well for this race but if your pacing is wrong on race day, your goal time can quickly disappear.

Most runners spend far more time thinking about how fast they need to run rather than how they are actually going to execute that plan on race day. The reality is that pacing is more than just checking your watch, it requires an understanding of effort, course conditions, race strategy, and how you handle discomfort. 

The good news is that race pacing is a skill that improves with experience. Every race teaches you how your body responds to different efforts and where your strengths and weaknesses lie regarding maintaining a specific pace. 

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Understanding Actual Pace vs Average Pace

Most GPS watches provide both actual pace and average pace but runners are often confused which one they should be focussing on for race pacing.

Actual pace, sometimes called current pace, shows how fast you are running at that exact moment. While this sounds useful, it can often be frustrating because GPS signals are constantly updating. One moment your watch might show a pace that is ten seconds faster than your target, only to display a pace that is ten seconds slower a few seconds later, even though your effort has remained exactly the same.

Average pace tends to be much more stable because it reflects your pace across the entire run or race so far. For longer races such as half marathons and marathons, average pace is often the more useful metric because it prevents you from constantly reacting to every fluctuation.

Many experienced runners use both. They might check actual pace occasionally, but they rely more on average pace and perceived effort when making pacing decisions.

Don't Always Believe Your Watch

race pacingYour watch doesn’t always tell you the true story.  Tall buildings, dense tree cover, tunnels, bridges, poor satellite connections, and even large groups of runners can affect the accuracy of your watch. This is why you should never panic because of one unexpected pace reading. Your watch uses satellite data to measure your pace, not your actual effort.

Many runners become too focused on their watch and stop paying attention to how they actually feel. They see a pace that looks slow and immediately speed up even though they were running comfortably and efficiently. Or they see a pace that looks too fast and unnecessarily slow down despite feeling strong.

Your watch is a useful, but try not to depend on it solely for race pacing feedback.

Learning to Run by Feel

One of the most valuable skills a runner can develop is the ability to judge your effort without constantly checking a watch.  There will be times during races when the pace shown on your watch does not match what your body is capable of producing on that particular day. Weather conditions, hills, wind, fatigue can all influence your pace.

For example, it becomes more difficult to maintain pace when running up a steep hill or when running into a strong headwind.  The best advice here is to run at the same effort, even if that is at a slightly slower pace.  

Practising running by feel can make a huge difference on race day.  Every now and again, try a training run without looking at your watch.  This is harder than you might think, we always want to know how fast and how far we are going.  Obviously, we still want the run to count on Strava! Put some tape over the watch face so you can practice running by feel and you can still analyse your data afterwards.  Over time, you will develop a much better understanding of what a specific pace actually feels like, whether it is an easy, steady or race pace.

Understanding the Blue Line

race pacingOne of the biggest surprises for first-time marathon runners is discovering that their GPS watch records a distance longer than the official race distance. 

Marathon courses are measured along the shortest possible route, known as the blue line. This is the route used by official course measurers when certifying the distance. To run exactly 26.2 miles/42K, you would need to follow that blue line perfectly throughout the race. This is extremely difficult in reality.  You find yourself weaving around runners, taking wider corners or crossing over to get to aid stations.  By the time you reach the finish line, it is common for a marathon watch to show more than the marathon distance.

This is one of the reasons marathon race pacing can be tricky. If you just follow the pace displayed on your watch without considering the extra distance you are running, you may find yourself missing your target finish time despite believing you were on track. You may technically have reached 26.2 or 42k on your watch but you haven’t crossed the official finish line. When determining your race pacing strategy you definitely need to factor in a slightly longer distance. 

Determining Your Goal Pace

Before race day, you should know exactly what pace is required for your target finish time. Whether you want to break four hours in the marathon, run a sub-two-hour half marathon, or achieving a personal best over 10K, knowing your target pace provides a framework for your race pacing strategy.

Pace calculators and conversion charts can help you determine these numbers. The pace conversion tools available through ARC, are useful for calculating race paces and understanding how performances across different distances relate to one another.

For longer races, particularly marathons, it is advisable to allow a small buffer for the extra distance you will almost certainly cover through normal race movement. 

Banking Time and Negative Splits

Many runners wonder whether they should run faster than their goal pace early in a race to build a cushion for later. This is often called banking time, while a negative split means running the second half of the race faster than the first half.

Although both sound like good race pacing strategies, they can often backfire. Many runners do go off faster than the race plan as they get caught up in the excitment and rush at the start. Unfortunately, energy spent early usually catches up with you later, especially in longer races such as the half marathon and marathon.

For most runners, maintaining an even pace is a safer strategy. If you still feel strong later in the race, you can gradually increase your effort and potentially achieve a negative split. Some runners naturally finish strongly, while others tend to slow slightly as fatigue builds. If your long runs consistently show a drop in pace during the later stages, planning an aggressive negative split may not be realistic.

Break the Race Into Thirds

race pacingOne of the simplest ways to pace a race is to divide it mentally into thirds. Rather than looking at the big picture and the entire distance you need to run, break it down into smaller chunks and focus on reaching each of these checkpoints.  When you reach each point assess how you are feeling.

At roughly one-third of the race distance, ask yourself whether your breathing feels controlled and whether your effort feels sustainable. If you feel strong and comfortable, consider increasing your pace by a few seconds per mile or kilometre.

If you feel comfortable but are uncertain, maintain your current pace and reassess later.

If you are struggling, slightly reduce your pace to regain control of your breathing and effort level. After a few minutes, reassess and decide whether you can gradually increase the pace again.

This approach helps prevent emotional decisions and encourages you to make pacing adjustments based on how you actually feel rather than what you hope to feel. It also makes the race mentally more achievable as you focus on smaller sections at a time. 

Advice for Beginner Runners

If you are preparing for your first race, try not to become overly focused on pace. When you are new to running, your priority should be building endurance and consistency. The ability to cover the distance comfortably is far more important than achieving a specific pace.

Many beginners spend too much time worrying about speed when they would benefit far more from simply running regularly and gradually increasing their distance.  As your fitness improves, your pace will naturally improve alongside it.

Once you have become comfortable with your target race distance, you can then begin introducing more structured workouts and specific pace-based training. Until then, focus on building to the target distance gradually and finding that pace where your breathing feels controlled and comfortable.

Study the Course Profile

Every race is different, and often the course profile will determine your race pacing strategy.

Before race day, if possible, spend some time studying the route and elevation chart. Find out where the hills are located, whether there are long climbs or flat faster sections, and if the race finishes uphill or downhill. If the race is local to you, do a few practice runs. If that is not possible, you will still be able to find information on the course which will help you figure out the best race pacing plan for that particular course.

If you have ran this race already you may be able to look back at your Strava information and see where you were able to gain time and where you lost time.  This information is extremely valuable for learning where you can make adjustments.  Maybe you were unaware of a steep hill coming up, a congested part of the course or where you could have paced more strategically to take advantage of downhills. 

Learn From Every Race

race pacing

No matter how much preparation you do, race day rarely goes 100% to plan. Weather conditions, wind, crowds, nutrition, fatigue, stress, and even your quality of sleep can all affect performance.

Almost every runner crosses a finish line and immediately starts analysing their race. They think about where they could have pushed harder, where they should have been more patient, where they lost time, what nutrition worked or didn’t work  and what they would change next time.

Rather than viewing races as successes or failures, always view them as opportunities to learn. Every race provides information that can help you improve your next performance. The runners who become consistently successful are not always those with the most natural talent. They are the runners who learn from each race, apply those lessons in training, and continue refining their pacing strategy over time.

Pacing is part science, part experience, and part self-awareness. Watches, pace charts, calculators, and race plans are all useful tools, but they cannot replace the knowledge gained through training and racing. Learn what different efforts feel like, understand your strengths and weaknesses and trust your preparation.

Fine Tune Your Race Pacing Strategy

race pacing

Pacing is a skill that improves with the right guidance, training, and experience. Inside Achieve Running Club, you’ll get access to structured training plans, expert coaching advice, and practical tools to help you determine realistic pacing targets and set meaningful running goals.

If you’re looking for a more personalised approach, coach John also offers one-to-one coaching through JMRunCoach. Your training plan will be tailored to your current fitness level, target race distance, goal finish time, and the specific profile of your chosen race, including elevation, terrain, and race-day demands. 

Alternatively, chose your plan through ARC which matches your goal distance and time and how many days you can train per week.  

Whether you go with one to one coaching or chose one of our plans we will give you the structure to reach your finish line with confidence.  We look forward to sharing your running goals. 

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